You knew that this couldn’t be a landslide victory for Barack Obama, right?
From the fever swamps of the blogosphere to the halls of academia, there is a chorus of voices who have come to the same conclusion about the presidential election: Barack Obama is going to win in November, by something resembling a landslide.
Yet for all the breathless analysis and number-crunching that has convinced observers Obama is en route to an epic victory, there is one key historic fact that is often overlooked—most popular vote landslides were clearly visible by the end of summer. And by that indicator, 2008 doesn’t measure up.
In five of the six post-war landslides (defined as a victory of 10 percentage points or more) the eventual winner was ahead by at least 10 percentage points in the polls at the close of August, according to a Politico analysis of historical Gallup polls. Over the past week, however, Gallup’s daily tracking poll pegs Obama ahead of John McCain by a margin of 2 to 5 percentage points.
I don’t expect Obama to lose the election to John McCain, but I also don’t expect him to run away with the Presidency. It has been a rough couple of years for the economy, the US and its people. It is obvious that the people are ready for a change, but I’m not sure if the country is sure of who they would like to see in office.
Time will tell who will win the general election in November. This month will be very interesting as we have the Democratic National Convention in Denver in just two weeks followed soon after by the Republican National Convention.
Obama will be announcing his candidate shortly, via text message, and I for one believe that his choice of a running mate may be the ultimate decider whether he wins in November, or loses. At least now we know it won’t be John Edwards, right? Thoughts?